- The IGR projects the proportion of Australians with a university degree will increase from about 40 per cent to 47 per cent by 2065-66.
Australia will need more workers with higher-level qualifications over the coming decades, but the country’s projected university attainment rate is below a target recommended by the Australian Universities Accord, Universities Australia (UA), an industry body representing 38 constituent universities, has said.
The comments came after the release of the 2026 Intergenerational Report (IGR), which looks at Australia’s economy, population and government finances over the next 40 years. The report identifies artificial intelligence, an ageing population, the energy transition, geopolitical changes and industrial transformation as major factors that will shape the economy through to 2065-66.
The IGR projects the proportion of Australians with a university degree will increase from about 40 per cent to 47 per cent by 2065-66. UA has pointed out that this is below the 55 per cent target recommended by the Australian Universities Accord for Australians aged 25 to 34 by 2050.
The difference is important because the Accord was designed around the expectation that Australia will need a larger pool of people with tertiary qualifications as the economy changes. The Accord recommended increasing the share of 25- to 34-year-olds with a university qualification from 45 per cent to 55 per cent by 2050.
It also recommended that at least 80 per cent of the working-age population should have a tertiary qualification, including university and vocational qualifications, by 2050. The government has adopted the broader 80 per cent target.
UA chief executive Luke Sheehy has now called for the government to also adopt the 55 per cent university attainment target. UA said the issue is not only about university enrolments but also about whether Australia will have enough skilled workers for future jobs.
The organisation has previously made a similar argument. In September, Sheehy said Australia would need more university graduates from groups that have historically had lower participation in higher education, including students from low-income families, regional and remote areas and families where no one has previously attended university.
The latest IGR also raises questions about the level of public support available to achieve higher participation. UA highlighted projections showing Commonwealth spending on higher education and vocational education and training falling by 0.2 percentage points of GDP. It also pointed to a projected decline in income support and assistance to students from 3.4 per cent to 2.6 per cent of GDP, without policy changes.
For students, UA has been calling for wider access to financial support. Earlier this month, it asked the government to provide concession cards to all domestic university students and equal public transport concessions for international students. UA cited rising student costs, including increases in rents, groceries, utilities and fuel since 2021.
The organisation is also seeking changes to the Job-ready Graduates scheme, which determines government funding and student contributions for different courses. UA has repeatedly called for the scheme to be replaced with a different funding model.
The latest statement therefore adds the IGR’s long-term projections to an existing debate over how Australia expands university participation. UA’s argument is that setting a higher attainment target needs to be accompanied by measures that help students enter and complete university, while also providing universities with enough funding to support a larger student population.
The IGR itself is a long-term projection rather than a forecast of a fixed policy outcome. It is intended to show how current trends and policies could affect Australia’s economy and government finances over the next 40 years.
